Public Release Item: Public Release items have appeared on HSA forms and then are released for public viewing and use. Releasing items is one step to ensuring that schools, districts, and other stakeholders understand how the core learning goals are assessed on the HSA.
 Goal 3 Data Analysis And Probability Expectation 3.1 The student will collect, organize, analyze, and present data. Indicator 3.1.3 The student will calculate theoretical probability or use simulations or statistical inference from data to estimate the probability of an event. Assessment Limits: This indicator does not include finding probabilities of dependent events.

### Selected Response Item - Released in 2001

A spinner has spaces labeled X, Y, and Z. The spinner was spun 20 times. The results are shown in the table below.

According to this data, what is the experimental probability that the spinner will land on Y?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2001_313_alg16.xml

A

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2002

Use the Response Grids in the Answer Book to complete the following.

Mrs. Penner has 7 keys for her school on her key ring. All of the keys are different but look alike. One of these keys is for the bathroom and two are for her classroom. If she picks one key at random, what is the probability that the key is not for the bathroom or her classroom?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2002_313_alg15.xml

0.57-0.6

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2002

Use the Response Grids in the Answer Book to complete the following.

Hank tosses 4 coins at the same time. He repeats this action 10 times. The results are shown below, where H represents heads and T represents tails.

Based on this data, what is the probability that at least one out of the group of 4 coins tossed will land with tails up?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2002_313_alg16.xml

0.9

### Selected Response Item - Released in 2002

Pedro designed a board game with a spinner that is divided into 4 equal sections: 1, 2, 3, and “Lose a Turn.” He wanted to determine how many times a player would spin “Lose a Turn” in 10 spins. He conducted a simulation where one trial consisted of 10 spins. The table below shows his results for 50 trials.

Based on the simulation, what is the probability that a player will spin “Lose a Turn” 3 or more times in 10 spins?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2002_313_alg21.xml

C

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2005

Use the Response Grids in the Answer Book to complete the following.

The Game Land Company developed a new trivia game. The spinner below is used to determine what kind of question is asked. The spinner is divided into 4 equal sections. One of the sections is divided in half.

What is the probability that a circle question is asked?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2005_313_alg13.xml

.37 .375 .38 .4

### Selected Response Item - Released in 2005

A company manufactures CD players. The quality control department checks 600 CD players and discovers that 12 of them are defective. What is the probability that a CD player is not defective?

1. 0.12
2. 0.50
3. 0.72
4. 0.98
/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2005_313_alg20.xml

D

### Selected Response Item - Released in 2001

The table below shows information about the students in Ms. Murphy's algebra class.

What is the probability that a randomly selected male student does not ride the bus to school?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2001_313_alg36.xml

D

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2001

Use the Response Grids in the Answer Book to complete the following:

A recent survey of Americans who work outside the home found that 10% take public transportation, 80% drive to work, and 10% use other forms of transportation.

Meghan used a random number generator to simulate the various methods that a group of five people may use to get to work. For her simulation, Meghan assigned digits to the various methods of transportation as shown in the table below.

She ran the simulation 10 times, and the results are shown below.

Based on Meghan's simulation, what is the probability that all 5 people in the group drive to work?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2001_313_alg39.xml

0.3

### Selected Response Item - Released in 2001

In a simulation designed to represent families with two children, two coins are tossed to model the gender of each child. The results of 50 trials are shown in the table below.

Based on the results in the table, what is the probability that a family with two children have at least one boy?

1. 0.30
2. 0.44
3. 0.58
4. 0.74
/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2001_313_alg47.xml

D

### Selected Response Item - Released in 2003

The words "mathematics" and "algebra" are written on cards with one letter on each card. If one card is drawn at random, what is the probability that the card will have an "a" on it?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2003_313_alg10.xml

A

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2003

Use the Response Grids in the Answer Book to complete the following.

Valerie surveyed 50 people about their choice of pizza crusts. Her results are shown in the table below.

If an adult is selected at random, what is the probability that the adult prefers thin crust?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2003_313_alg16.xml

0.56

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2003

Use the Response Grids in the Answer Book to complete the following.

The spinner below is divided into 8 equal sections.

If the arrow lands on a number, what is the probability that it will land on a 1 or a 4 ?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2003_313_alg38.xml

.25

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2004

Use the Response Grids in the Answer Book to complete the following.

A bag contains 5 red apples, 7 yellow apples, and 8 green apples. Brett picks an apple from the bag without looking. What is the probability that Brett will pick a green apple?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2004_313_alg13.xml

0.4

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2004

Use the Response Grids in the Answer Book to complete the following.

The senior class sold school spirit items. The table below shows the number of items sold on the first day of a two-day sale.

Based on sales from the first day, what is the probability that the first person on the second day of the sale will buy a hat?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2004_313_alg15.xml

.2 .24 .244 .2444

### Selected Response Item - Released in 2004

Customers at Harvey's Store can win appliances at the grand opening. The table below shows the type and the number of appliances.

Toby is the first customer to win an appliance. What is the probability that Toby will win an iron or a toaster?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2004_313_alg22.xml

C

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2009

A spinner is divided into 8 equal sections as shown below.

What is the theoretical probability that the arrow will not land on a section labeled E or O?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2009_313_alg13.xml

0.625

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2009

A fish tank at a pet store has 3 red fish, 6 blue fish, 7 yellow fish, and 4 orange fish. If one fish is chosen at random from the tank, what is the probability that the fish will be blue or yellow?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2009_313_alg39.xml

0.65

### Selected Response Item - Released in 2009

There are coconut, caramel, and fudge candy in a box. Kevin uses a random number generator to simulate choosing one piece of candy. The table below shows the assignment of digits to the types of candy.

Kevin ran the simulation 20 times. The results are shown below:

5 1 0 4 4   3 6 2 9 8   7 4 5 6 8   1 6 3 6 5

Based on the results of the simulation, what is the probability that a randomly selected piece of candy is a coconut candy?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2009_313_alg46.xml

A

### Selected Response Item - Released in 2002

The bar graph below shows the results of spinning a spinner 1,000 times. The spinner has 5 colored sections.

Which of these spinners most likely produced the above bar graph?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2002_313_alg30.xml

C

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2005

Use the Response Grids in the Answer Book to complete the following.

Judy asked 140 students at her high school their opinion of the school mascot. The survey results are shown below.

If a female student is selected at random, what is the probability that she likes the mascot?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2005_313_alg15.xml

Range 0.6 to 0.6143

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2006

Use the Response Grids in the Answer Book to complete the following.

A reporter surveyed 300 randomly selected people of all ages about their opinion of a new song. The results are shown in the table below.

What is the probability that a person who had no opinion of the new song was older than 46?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2006_313_alg14.xml

0.186

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2006

Use the Response Grids in the Answer Book to complete Numbers 25 through 27.

Use the Response Grids in the Answer Book to complete the following.

Paloma conducts a survey to determine the type of candy that students prefer. The survey results are shown in the table below.

Based on the survey results, what is the probability that a randomly selected student prefers Fruit Bursts?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2006_313_alg25.xml

0.2

### Selected Response Item - Released in 2006

The spinner below has 8 equal sections.

What is the probability of spinning a number less than 3?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2006_313_alg33.xml

A

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2007

The stem-and-leaf plot below shows the test scores of the 32 students in Ms. Jones' history class.

What is the probability that a randomly selected student in Ms. Jones’ history class scored higher than 75 on this test?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2007_313_alg15.xml

0.625

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2007

A spinner is divided into 8 regions of equal size that are numbered as shown below.

The spinner is spun and lands on a number. What is the probability that the arrow will land on the number 2?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2007_313_alg29.xml

0.375

### Selected Response Item - Released in 2007

A sea turtle buried 200 eggs in the sand. Of the 176 baby turtles that hatched, 125 were eaten by birds, and 39 were eaten by other animals. The rest of the baby turtles made it to the ocean. What is the probability that a turtle from a buried egg makes it to the ocean?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2007_313_alg36.xml

C

### Selected Response Item - Released in 2008

Richard surveys a room of 26 adults and finds that of the 12 men, 5 are married and 7 are single. Of the 14 women, 8 are married and 6 are single. Richard randomly assigns each person a number and places a card with each number in a hat. What is the probability that Richard will select a card with a number assigned to a married man?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2008_313_alg02.xml

A

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2008

Bailey decorates a dance hall with balloons. A box of balloons contains 20 red, 18 blue, and 12 white balloons. Bailey randomly chooses a balloon without looking. What is the probability that he chooses a blue or a white balloon?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2008_313_alg10.xml

0.6

### Student Produced Response (SPR) Item - Released in 2008

José conducted a survey of 30 people to determine how many times a person ate at a restaurant between January and July. The results are shown in the stem-and-leaf plot below.

Based on the survey results, what is the probability of randomly selecting a person who ate at a restaurant 20 or more times between January and July?

/share/clg/xml/public_release/mathematics/2008_313_alg28.xml